盘前简报
盘前简报 — 2026-05-25
2026年5月25日盘前简报 — 2026-05-25
市场状态
QQQ $714.51 — 距SMA50 ($639.70) +11.7% · 风险偏好 ✅
投资组合
| 策略 | 总值 | 回报 | 回撤 | 持仓 | 现金 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Pool | $1,947,942 | +1847.9% | -2.0% | 20 | 0% |
| V5.3 | $1,182,333 | +1082.3% | -2.3% | 18 | 0% |
突破信号
今日无突破信号。
_section_options_radar 部分不可用。
持仓
| 代码 | 入场价 | 现价 | 盈亏% | 策略 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 000660.KS | $611.02 | $1416.06 | +131.8% | 4-Pool |
| 0981.HK | $8.21 | $9.54 | +16.2% | 4-Pool |
| 1347.HK | $12.06 | $16.45 | +36.4% | 4-Pool |
| 2513.HK | $102.10 | $129.82 | +27.2% | 4-Pool |
| APLD | $32.19 | $48.02 | +49.2% | 4-Pool |
| APP | $433.51 | $485.89 | +12.1% | 4-Pool |
| AVGO | $402.17 | $414.57 | +3.1% | 4-Pool |
| CIEN | $67.36 | $587.23 | +771.8% | 4-Pool |
| CIFR | $15.42 | $21.52 | +39.6% | 4-Pool |
| GFS | $47.80 | $81.35 | +70.2% | 4-Pool |
| LITE | $62.86 | $964.50 | +1434.4% | 4-Pool |
| LRCX | $246.49 | $302.24 | +22.6% | 4-Pool |
| MDB | $264.69 | $317.50 | +20.0% | 4-Pool |
| MP | $57.36 | $61.74 | +7.6% | 4-Pool |
| MU | $465.66 | $762.10 | +63.7% | 4-Pool |
| NOK | $11.30 | $14.18 | +25.5% | 4-Pool |
| PWR | $317.65 | $716.91 | +125.7% | 4-Pool |
| TER | $107.65 | $353.44 | +228.3% | 4-Pool |
| TSM | $365.90 | $407.15 | +11.3% | 4-Pool |
| WULF | $18.05 | $22.92 | +27.0% | 4-Pool |
| 000660.KS | $611.02 | $1416.06 | +131.8% | V5.3 |
| 005930.KS | $138.98 | $218.61 | +57.3% | V5.3 |
| 0981.HK | $8.21 | $9.54 | +16.2% | V5.3 |
| 9888.HK | $15.68 | $16.26 | +3.7% | V5.3 |
| ASML | $1421.05 | $1592.00 | +12.0% | V5.3 |
| CIEN | $67.36 | $587.23 | +771.8% | V5.3 |
| CIFR | $15.42 | $21.52 | +39.6% | V5.3 |
| CRDO | $119.59 | $193.39 | +61.7% | V5.3 |
| ETN | $400.44 | $381.51 | -4.7% | V5.3 |
| FCX | $49.15 | $62.31 | +26.8% | V5.3 |
| GFS | $47.80 | $81.35 | +70.2% | V5.3 |
| GOOGL | $317.24 | $387.66 | +22.2% | V5.3 |
| LRCX | $246.49 | $302.24 | +22.6% | V5.3 |
| MDB | $264.69 | $317.50 | +20.0% | V5.3 |
| PWR | $317.65 | $716.91 | +125.7% | V5.3 |
| QCOM | $156.00 | $213.41 | +36.8% | V5.3 |
| SHLS | $9.28 | $9.55 | +2.9% | V5.3 |
| TSM | $365.90 | $407.15 | +11.3% | V5.3 |
社媒Alpha — 分析师动态
共振信号 — 社媒 + 突破扫描
| 代码 | 方向 | 来源 | 突破类型 | 分数 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ## 1. 宏观与主题概览 |
Two independent analysts converge on the same multi-year AI infrastructure buildout. @aleabitoreddit highlights Jensen Huang’s projection of $3–4T annual AI capex by 2030 and flags upstream material and photonic bottlenecks. @jukan05 independently points to AI-server-driven demand spikes in passives (MLCC lead times) and a packaging shift toward embedded substrates and hybrid bonding that benefits Taiwanese suppliers. Both threads also surface geopolitical supply-chain bifurcation: Huawei’s new hybrid-bonding pathway for Kirin chips (fall launch) that bypasses leading-edge EUV, versus continued reliance on InP/SOI/TFLN and laser components sourced from a narrow set of non-Chinese specialists. Institutional passive flows into small-cap optical names are cited as an early confirmation signal.
## 2. 高确信度观点
$AXTI — 800 VDC + CPO 爬坡的 InP 衬底瓶颈
- Who: @aleabitoreddit (materials supply-chain mapping)
- Thesis: AXTI controls ~40 % of the indium/gallium/precursor/pBN crucible steps required for finished InP substrates; NVDA’s shift to 800 VDC and photonics buildout directly lifts substrate demand.
- Key data: 40 % of InP supply chain; $3–4 T annual AI capex by 2030.
- Valuation: Not provided.
- Catalyst: Photonics/CPO volume ramp 2026–2027.
- Engagement: [2185 L 253 RT 29 QT]
- Contrarian?: Against finished-substrate producers (Sumitomo); upstream leverage instead.
- Cross-references: Same analyst flags AXTI alongside SIVE/FOCI/MSSCorp in CPO chain.
$SIVE — 激光 IP + 指数纳入催化剂
- Who: @aleabitoreddit (multiple posts)
- Thesis: Sivers supplies CW DFB lasers to AEVA (FMCW) and multiple CPO players; first-time inclusion in OMX Stockholm + pending MSCI/NASDAQ listings will drive $60 M+ passive inflows into existing float.
- Key data: $60 M+ Vanguard/BlackRock buying pressure next week; MSCI follow-on; NASDAQ listing imminent.
- Valuation: Not provided.
- Catalyst: Index inclusions (next week) then NASDAQ listing.
- Engagement: [728 L 68 RT 14 QT], [730 L 42 RT 6 QT], [420 L 6 RT 3 QT]
- Contrarian?: Early institutional ownership while still retail-dominated.
- Cross-references: Same analyst maps SIVE → AEVA → LG Innotek → Boston Dynamics and to AAPL/NOK/RTX defense.
$SOI / 6830 MSSCorp / 3363 FOCI — SOI、良率控制、光学封装
- Who: @aleabitoreddit
- Thesis: SOI dominates SOI substrates; MSSCorp holds deep CPO yield patents; FOCI benefits from TSM COUPE optical module ramp.
- Key data: “Substantive monopoly” positioning cited; TSM-linked institutional optimism.
- Valuation: Not provided.
- Catalyst: 2026–2027 CPO production ramp.
- Engagement: [1002 L 123 RT 10 QT], [369 L 17 RT 6 QT]
- Contrarian?: No direct disagreement in batch.
## 3. 供应链与板块地图
- Lasers → CPO: $SIVE supplies DFB lasers to $AEVA (FMCW) and multiple unnamed CPO module makers; overlaps with $AXTI InP substrates.
- Packaging/test: Shunsin (讯芯) + MSSCorp (6830) sit downstream of both.
- Substrates: $SOI (SOI) and NGK (TFLN) are parallel material bottlenecks.
- Embedded substrates: NVDA/AMD/Intel interest flagged by @jukan05 as potential packaging shift away from traditional organic substrates.
- Geopolitical fork: Huawei hybrid-bonding route competes with the above Western/Taiwanese optical stack.
## 4. 风险与催化剂跟踪
- Next week: OMX Stockholm inclusion + MSCI rebalance for $SIVE; $60 M+ passive inflow.
- Imminent: $SIVE NASDAQ listing (additional US institutional tranche).
- Fall 2026: Huawei Kirin chip launch using hybrid bonding (no EUV).
- Ongoing: AI-server MLCC lead-time extension (Nichidenbo commentary).
## 5. 信号表格
| Ticker | Handle | Direction | Signal Type | Engagement | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTI | aleabitoreddit | bullish | early_trend | 2778 | 40 % InP chain control for $3–4 T AI capex |
| SIVE | aleabitoreddit | bullish | catalyst | 906 | OMX + MSCI + NASDAQ inflows next week |
| SIVE | aleabitoreddit | bullish | early_trend | 832 | First institutional passive wave into float |
| SOI | aleabitoreddit | bullish | early_trend | 1007 | Dominant SOI substrate monopoly |
| NVTS | aleabitoreddit | bullish | early_trend | 2444 | High-beta 10x power-semi name for 800 VDC |
| WOLF | aleabitoreddit | bullish | early_trend | 2444 | High-beta 10x power-semi name for 800 VDC |
| 6830 | aleabitoreddit | bullish | early_trend | 1278 | CPO yield-patent monopoly |
| 3363 | aleabitoreddit | bullish | confirmation | 385 | TSM COUPE optical module exposure |
过去24小时内列出的其他分析师未发布实质性投资帖子。
MLCC 与 AI 电力输送（结构性短缺论点）
- @AntonLaVay: “为什么 MLCC 又重要了？” 完整论点：AI 数据中心正将供电架构转向 48V/54V 及 ±400VDC/800VDC（OCP Diablo、NVIDIA 800VDC AI 工厂）；核心问题在于向 <1V GPU/ASIC 核心输送数百至数千安培电流，同时应对快速负载瞬变→电压跌落。高阶 MLCC（低 ESL、低高度、高容量、高可靠性、land-side/die-side、服务器级）为满足 PDN 阻抗与去耦需求所必需；普通 MLCC 并不短缺。该短缺为结构性而非周期性：单服务器 MLCC 用量与规格持续提升；认证周期漫长；Murata/Taiyo Yuden/Samsung Electro-Mechanics/TDK 正将产能分配至高毛利规格。硅电容在不同频段与之互补而非替代。“大概率会”在高容量/小尺寸/低 ESL/高电压/高温度规格上维持紧缺。“MLCC正在从消费电子周期品的一部分，变成AI基础设施供电网络的一部分。”（含 A 股 MLCC 标的图片；文中提及“我没有深入了解每一家A股公司”及“推荐您自行研究”）。
宏观 / 衰退指标
- @dampedspring: “Also January 2008”（回复上下文涉及图表/数据点）。
- @BickerinBrattle: “And that is called a recession”（回复上下文）。
### 日本价值
-
@JapanDeepValue1：引用 First Squawk 报道，日本金融监管机构敦促上市公司将更多现金储备用于长期业务投资，而非回购股份和提高股息。“我认为围绕这一点的投机一直是重要驱动因素，对这些资产负债表极为稳健的公司进行‘greemail’将更加困难，因此激进主义交易正在（一定程度上）减弱”
-
@JapanDeepValue1：引用本人先前帖子，指出 6998 仍以低于 PBR 1x 的估值交易，且走势落后于其他 HDD 相关标的（重申对该标的的既有日本价值立场）。
### 投资心态 / 保守主义（相较于 @ivanalog_com 主要科技/股息领域，属跨领域内容）
- @ivanalog_com：“我和你一样，甚至更保守的多。我觉得每个人乐天知命就好。跟别人全仓，三倍比收益，我们显然是比不过的。别人的乐观和下注能力就决定了没法比。我有一天反思，一个是可能更接近物理真实的经历，另一个可能是2008年的A股给我的记忆太深刻了。每个人都有自己的福气和运气，不用太过自责。”
### 国防科技（@fundmyfund 的主要领域）
- @fundmyfund：引用 Sam Rubin / Lockheed Martin NGSRI 网站帖子及 GIF（未陈述额外论点或数据）。
### AI 基础设施 / 半导体
- @lithos_graphein: “安全团队令人惊叹。他是万亿美元人物。”（关于 NVIDIA 首席执行官黄仁勋现身台北饶河街夜市）
### 基板 / 供应链 (AT&S / ABF)
- @KairosPraxis: “按时交付产品比确切成本更重要”～ 来自 AT&S 首席执行官的洞见，关于其客户（芯片制造商）真正关心的事项。背景是他们是否能将价格上涨（推测为 ABF 原材料）转嫁给客户。猜测真正的瓶颈是按时完成出货。
### AI 模型局限
- @KairosPraxis: “这对我而言是最奇怪的部分。模型对其自身能力几乎缺乏认知。我刚刚与 Claude 进行了一次令人沮丧的对话，它不断对一份文档进行幻觉回应，而非告知我未附加该文档。”
### SaaS 需求 / AI 代理
- @OwlWealthy: “在我看来，这是一个 70% 概率事件——未来两年内，由于使用 SaaS 的代理数量增长以及单代理使用量上升，SaaS 需求将大幅增加。这对优质 SaaS 标的构成利好 $NOW $PLTR $MSFT $CRWD 我亦少量持有 $CRM”
### 半导体工艺 (光阻)
- @lithos_graphein: “对于宽带及 i-line DNQ 光阻（非化学放大型），可通过显影时间与曝光剂量调节光阻剖面形状（锥形/底切）。软烘与曝光后烘亦会产生影响，但需进行完整工艺 DOE。为确保获得最佳焦点，FEM 必不可少，假设该步骤已完成。在涂胶显影设备上，显影液池在时间上可能受限，因此若需更长显影时间，通常会进行第二次液池刷新。例如 2×60 秒液池。”
### 供应商与设计伙伴动态
- @KairosPraxis: “区分‘设计伙伴’与普通供应商的很好方式。若仅为供应商，则始终可进行双 sourcing。”
### AI 基础设施 / 计算与功率半导体
- @TMTLongShort: “计算资源的供给推动实验室研究机构发展，进而推动模型能力提升，再驱动推理需求。智能需求无限。计算失衡将持续恶化，直至扩展定律失效。”
- @TheValueist: "$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE My Analyst Agent did some work for you @aleabitoreddit . I’ll update the analysis again as more responses come in. The power of GAI. POWER SEMI / 800 VDC CROWD-SOURCED PICK SCAN — UPDATED 05/24/26 12:40 PM ET Context: the tweet asked for highest-conviction “10x only” stock longs tied to the power semiconductor / 800 VDC AI data-center architecture theme, with NVTS and WOLF cited as examples. UPDATED PICKS BY OCCURRENCE • NVTS: 18 • WOLF: 12 • VICR: 11 • POWI: 8 • INFINEON (IFX / IFNNY): 6 • AOSL: 5 • FCEL: 5 • INNOSCIENCE / 02577: 5 • IPWR: 5 • OUST: 5 • HIVE: 4 • ATOM: 3 • CWR / CWR.L: 3 • SEDG: 3 • TE: 3 • BE: 2 • BRUN: 2 • DGXX: 2 • ENPH: 2 • EOSE: 2 • FLNC: 2 • HGRAF: 2 • IREN: 2 • KALRAY: 2 • LUMN: 2 • NBIS: 2 • NOK: 2 • RELL: 2 • VIVO: 2 • VLN: 2 Single-mention picks: ACLS, AEHR, AIP, AISP, AIXA, ALAB, ALKAL, AMBA, AMC, AMPG, AMSC, APH, ARBE, ASYS, CGEH, CPSH, CVV, DUOT, ENSI, EPOW, GFS, HYLN, IMSR, INDI, INFQ, INV, IONQ, IQE, KEEL, KQ / 168360, KULR, LAES, LPTH, MRVL, MSTR, NVEC, ON, PAYT, POW, PPSI, QS, RENESAS, RGTI, RKLB, SCE, SHLS, STM, TRT, TSLA, VIAV, VPG, VSH. LARGEST CHANGES VS PRIOR CAPTURE • NVTS: 10 → 18 (+8) • VICR: 6 → 11 (+5) • WOLF: 8 → 12 (+4) • Infineon: 3 → 6 (+3) • POWI: 6 → 8 (+2) • AOSL: 3 → 5 (+2) • OUST: 3 → 5 (+2) • New two-mention names: IREN, RELL Bottom line: new comments strengthened the same core cluster rather than changing the thread’s direction. NVTS remains the clear crowd favorite, WOLF remains #2, and VICR moved up materially. Infineon, AOSL, OUST, and Innoscience gained incremental support. RELL and IREN newly emerged as two-mention names."
信号簿
| 代码 | 方向 | 来源 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| VSH | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| VIAV | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| TSLA | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| STM | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| RKLB | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| QS | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| ON | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| MSTR | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| MRVL | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| IQE | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| IONQ | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| INDI | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| GFS | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| ENSI | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |
| APH | 做多 | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long tied to power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture th… |