盘后简报 — 2026-03-30
2026年3月30日盘后简报 — 2026-03-30
市场状态
QQQ $558.39 — 距SMA50 ($605.20) -7.7% · 风险规避 ⛔
投资组合
| 策略 | 总值 | 回报 | 回撤 | 持仓 | 现金 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Pool | $1,442,808 | +1342.8% | 0.0% | 9 | 0% |
| V5.3 | $950,748 | +850.7% | 0.0% | 8 | 3% |
今日交易
今日无交易。
突破信号
减仓
- ARM (Arm Holdings) [Processors] — BASE_RECOVERY score 75 @ $123.70
退出
- ASML (ASML Holding) [Semiconductor Equipment] — BASE_RECOVERY score 70 @ $754.89
- PLTR (Palantir Technologies) [Software & Models] — BASE_RECOVERY score 45 @ $155.08
- LRCX (Lam Research) [Semiconductor Equipment] — ONEIL score 45 @ $226.47
- GFS (GlobalFoundries) [Foundries] — ONEIL score 40 @ $46.08
持仓
| 代码 | 入场价 | 现价 | 盈亏% | 策略 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | $754.89 | $1317.23 | +74.5% | 4-Pool |
| BEPC | $42.01 | $39.40 | -6.2% | 4-Pool |
| CIEN | $67.36 | $365.14 | +442.1% | 4-Pool |
| DNN | $2.69 | $3.36 | +24.9% | 4-Pool |
| INTC | $21.81 | $43.13 | +97.8% | 4-Pool |
| LITE | $62.86 | $654.12 | +940.6% | 4-Pool |
| LRCX | $80.79 | $199.91 | +147.4% | 4-Pool |
| PWR | $317.65 | $534.07 | +68.1% | 4-Pool |
| TER | $107.65 | $276.60 | +156.9% | 4-Pool |
| 000660.KS | $154.01 | $681.02 | +342.2% | V5.3 |
| BEPC | $42.01 | $39.40 | -6.2% | V5.3 |
| CIEN | $67.36 | $365.14 | +442.1% | V5.3 |
| FCX | $49.15 | $55.83 | +13.6% | V5.3 |
| GEV | $684.86 | $817.35 | +19.3% | V5.3 |
| LITE | $62.86 | $654.12 | +940.6% | V5.3 |
| LRCX | $80.79 | $199.91 | +147.4% | V5.3 |
| PWR | $317.65 | $534.07 | +68.1% | V5.3 |
社媒Alpha — 分析师动态
No relevant posts from the specified analysts in the last 24 hours matching the criteria (original posts since 2026-03-29).
Buffett Investment Philosophy
- @iamai_eth: 我突然对巴菲特关于投资最重要的两点有了新的感悟，他说第一不要亏钱第二记住第一点，除了字面意思，这段话其实是一种递归的结构，而复杂系统演化中，递归就意味着复利。在复杂系统中，递归结构还意味着自指（self-reference）。规则引用自身，系统就具备了某种"自我意识"——它不断审视自己是否还在遵守那个最初的约束。这其实暗合了巴菲特投资体系的元特征：他不是一个寻找机会的系统，他是一个不断确认自己没有偏离安全边际的系统。前者是进攻性的、发散的；后者是防御性的、收敛的。但吊诡的是，在时间足够长的复杂系统演化中，收敛的策略反而产生发散的结果——这就是复利。再结合最近火爆的Harness工程，会发现也是这种第二条规则指向第一条的约束，可惜巴菲特没学过编程语言，不然会是写出最优雅Harness的人。[1]
Memory & Storage
- @iamai_eth: 别被骗了，导致存储暴跌的，可能是其他因素，甚至是多因素叠加，目前有太多人觉存储被这篇论文错杀，但这可能是一种完全未知的陷阱。(re: Google memory paper, Sora shutdown, consumer DRAM price drop, MU、SNDK、SK海力士 stocks)[2]
Semiconductor Price Increases & Bottlenecks
-
@jukan05: Beyond Memory to Non-Memory… Semiconductor Prices Rising Across the Board
Price increases are spreading not only in memory semiconductors but also across the non-memory space. Following the AI infrastructure investment boom that has driven up DRAM and NAND flash prices, supply disruptions and price hikes are now emerging in analog chips, power semiconductors, communications chips, and CPUs. The industry views this as a phase in which the AI-driven demand shock is propagating throughout the broader semiconductor ecosystem.
According to industry sources on March 30, semiconductor prices are trending upward across the full spectrum of end markets, including PCs, automotive, and servers. Intel and AMD — the two dominant players in PC CPUs — are reportedly set to implement price increases, while semiconductor companies spanning automotive, power, and communications are raising prices in succession.
Per market research firm TrendForce, Dutch automotive and industrial semiconductor company NXP is expected to begin raising prices starting next month. Texas Instruments (TI) and Infineon have also joined the price hike trend. STMicroelectronics, widely regarded as Europe's largest "semiconductor department store," is also expected to pursue price increases. The pattern of price escalation originating in memory and spreading into analog and power semiconductors is becoming unmistakable.
The prevailing interpretation is that these price increases stem from a bottleneck in chip production: while automotive and industrial demand remains steady, a significant share of mature-node capacity at foundries such as TSMC and Samsung Electronics is being absorbed by AI and data center applications. As AI server buildouts drive up demand for power management ICs and peripheral chips, the push to pass through rising costs into pricing is intensifying.
An executive at a major domestic foundry commented, "Given current foundry production trends and contract pricing, there is a strong likelihood of continued price adjustments going forward — particularly in power management semiconductors, industrial analog components, and select power switch product lines."
Communications chips and networking components are no exception. Broadcom recently disclosed that surging demand for AI chips and networking has pushed production capacity at its key manufacturing partner TSMC to a bottleneck. Considering that lead times for optical communications components such as lasers and PCBs have extended from existing order cycles to multi-month timelines, procurement pressure on high-performance networking chips and interconnect components appears to be mounting as well. Even though communications chips are not traded at standardized prices like memory, actual contract unit prices and supply terms are likely tightening.
CPUs are also not immune to upward pricing pressure. According to recent reports from TrendForce and Tom's Hardware, Intel and AMD are pursuing average price increases of 10–15% on CPUs, citing expanded AI demand and supply constraints. Lead times for some PC OEMs — the time from order to delivery — have reportedly stretched from the typical one to two weeks to as long as six months. Should CPUs, the quintessential general-purpose compute chips, join the price hike procession, it would further reinforce the narrative that semiconductor price inflation is spreading beyond memory into the broader system semiconductor space.[1][2]
-
@jukan05: Automotive chips, industrial analog semiconductors, power switches, high-performance networking chips and connectivity components, CPUs… Literally, everything is becoming a bottleneck, isn’t it?[2]
Optical / Photonics Semiconductors
- @KairosPraxis: New bull case for $LITE and bear case for $CRDO just emerged[3]
- @KairosPraxis: At this rate, $CRDO will soon become a favourite among value investors[4]
No substantive posts from the specified analysts in the last 24 hours.
信号簿
| 代码 | 方向 | 来源 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRDO | 做多 | @kairospraxis | Becoming a favorite among value investors, implying undervaluation. |
| CRDO | 做空 | @kairospraxis | New bear case emerged, specific drivers not detailed. |
| LITE | 做多 | @kairospraxis | New bull case emerged, specific drivers not detailed. |
| SKM | 做空 | @iamai_eth | Storage sector drop tied to consumer DRAM price decline. |
| SNDK | 做空 | @iamai_eth | Storage sector drop potentially due to multiple unknown factors. |
| MU | 做空 | @iamai_eth | Storage sector drop linked to Google memory paper and other factors. |
| SPX | 做多 | @dampedspring | Likely to close above 6845 by 12/31/2025. |
| AMD | 做多 | @jukan05 | AMD pursuing 10–15% CPU price increases, enhancing profitability. |
| INTC | 做多 | @jukan05 | Intel pursuing 10–15% CPU price increases, boosting margins. |
| STM | 做多 | @jukan05 | STMicroelectronics expected to follow price increases. |
| IFNNY | 做多 | @jukan05 | Infineon joining price hikes, supporting bullish trend. |
| TXN | 做多 | @jukan05 | TI joining price hikes, indicating sector-wide strength. |
| NXPI | 做多 | @jukan05 | NXP to raise prices next month, signaling strong pricing power. |
涨跌榜
涨幅榜
- D $61.87 (+1.6%)
- ASML $1317.23 (+1.1%)
- NEE $92.01 (+0.6%)
- EQIX $963.58 (-0.1%)
- DLR $175.21 (-0.3%)
跌幅榜
- COHR $219.48 (-10.0%)
- CIEN $365.14 (-9.4%)
- WDC $251.67 (-8.9%)
- NBIS $92.20 (-8.7%)
- WULF $13.74 (-7.9%)