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NVDADeep Divehigh

NVDA Deep Dive: GPU Compute Monopoly

February 15, 2026


# NVIDIA — GPU Compute Monopoly ## Thesis NVIDIA dominates the AI training and inference accelerator market with >80% share. The transition from H100 to B100/B200 architecture creates a multi-year upgrade cycle. ## Key Metrics - **Data Center Revenue:** $22.6B (Q4 FY25), +93% YoY - **Gross Margin:** 73.5% (expanding with software/CUDA lock-in) - **R&D Spend:** $3.2B/quarter — maintaining architectural lead ## Risks - Custom silicon (Google TPU, Amazon Trainium) gaining share at hyperscale - China export restrictions limiting TAM - Potential margin compression as competition matures ## Catalysts - B200 ramp in H2 2025 - Sovereign AI infrastructure spending (Middle East, India, Japan) - Inference demand inflecting as AI applications scale