Post-Close
Post-Close Briefing — 2026-05-15
May 15, 2026Post-Close Briefing — 2026-05-15
Market Regime
QQQ $714.71 — +13.9% vs SMA50 ($627.28) · Risk On ✅
Portfolio
| Strategy | Value | Return | DD | Positions | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Pool | $1,947,942 | +1847.9% | -2.0% | 20 | 0% |
| V5.3 | $1,194,777 | +1094.8% | 0.0% | 19 | 0% |
Today's Trades
No trades today.
Breakout Signals
No breakout signals today.
_Section section_options_radar unavailable.
Open Positions
| Ticker | Entry | Current | Gain% | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 000660.KS | $611.02 | $1442.34 | +136.1% | 4-Pool |
| 0981.HK | $8.21 | $9.53 | +16.1% | 4-Pool |
| 1347.HK | $12.06 | $16.68 | +38.3% | 4-Pool |
| 2513.HK | $102.10 | $147.81 | +44.8% | 4-Pool |
| APLD | $32.19 | $45.48 | +41.3% | 4-Pool |
| APP | $433.51 | $453.53 | +4.6% | 4-Pool |
| AVGO | $402.17 | $416.79 | +3.6% | 4-Pool |
| CIEN | $67.36 | $577.90 | +757.9% | 4-Pool |
| CIFR | $15.42 | $21.24 | +37.7% | 4-Pool |
| GFS | $47.80 | $74.99 | +56.9% | 4-Pool |
| LITE | $62.86 | $1030.37 | +1539.2% | 4-Pool |
| LRCX | $246.49 | $295.44 | +19.9% | 4-Pool |
| MDB | $264.69 | $303.00 | +14.5% | 4-Pool |
| MP | $57.36 | $63.73 | +11.1% | 4-Pool |
| MU | $465.66 | $803.63 | +72.6% | 4-Pool |
| NOK | $11.30 | $14.71 | +30.2% | 4-Pool |
| PWR | $317.65 | $773.72 | +143.6% | 4-Pool |
| TER | $107.65 | $363.38 | +237.6% | 4-Pool |
| TSM | $365.90 | $399.80 | +9.3% | 4-Pool |
| WULF | $18.05 | $23.12 | +28.1% | 4-Pool |
| 000660.KS | $611.02 | $1442.34 | +136.1% | V5.3 |
| 005930.KS | $138.98 | $207.30 | +49.2% | V5.3 |
| 0981.HK | $8.21 | $9.53 | +16.1% | V5.3 |
| 9888.HK | $15.68 | $17.67 | +12.7% | V5.3 |
| ASML | $1421.05 | $1581.58 | +11.3% | V5.3 |
| CCJ | $115.90 | $115.39 | -0.4% | V5.3 |
| CIEN | $67.36 | $577.90 | +757.9% | V5.3 |
| CIFR | $15.42 | $21.24 | +37.7% | V5.3 |
| CRDO | $119.59 | $189.36 | +58.3% | V5.3 |
| ETN | $400.44 | $406.94 | +1.6% | V5.3 |
| FCX | $49.15 | $67.16 | +36.6% | V5.3 |
| GFS | $47.80 | $74.99 | +56.9% | V5.3 |
| GOOGL | $317.24 | $402.62 | +26.9% | V5.3 |
| LRCX | $246.49 | $295.44 | +19.9% | V5.3 |
| MDB | $264.69 | $303.00 | +14.5% | V5.3 |
| PWR | $317.65 | $773.72 | +143.6% | V5.3 |
| QCOM | $156.00 | $213.17 | +36.6% | V5.3 |
| TSM | $365.90 | $399.80 | +9.3% | V5.3 |
| UMC | $12.98 | $15.92 | +22.7% | V5.3 |
X Alpha — Analyst Chatter
Convergence Alerts — X + Breakout Scanner
| Ticker | Direction | Source | Breakout | Score | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOCN | Long | @wey_how12640 | Episodic | 70 | Bought dip to 8-EMA as trend-following long in a market lead… |
| NVDA | Short | @bickerinbrattle | VCP | 50 | Taiwan handover to China (72-hour doctrine) creates supply-c… |
| AAOI | Short | @thevalueist | Base Recovery | 45 | Equity issuance filing after 39% 1-month rally; shares -2.7%… |
| 1. MACRO & THEMATIC OVERVIEW |
Two interlocking themes dominate the feed: (1) US supply-chain weaponization against China in critical upstream materials (InP substrates, specialty optical fiber, advanced packaging), and (2) hyperscaler vertical integration that bypasses traditional intermediaries. @aleabitoreddit and @jukan05 independently flag export-control leverage (InP, red phosphorus, Ulvac tools) and the resulting pricing power for non-Chinese suppliers. The same analysts also surface Google’s direct TSMC engagement and NVIDIA’s Rubin Ultra packaging choices, both of which compress the value chain between foundry and end customer. Optical-fiber shortages booked through 2028 and Google’s COT ambitions are two sides of the same capacity-constraint story.
2. HIGH-CONVICTION IDEAS
$AXTI — InP substrate export controls create durable US leverage
- Who: @aleabitoreddit (supply-chain/geopolitics focus)
- Thesis: Trump-era policy is shifting from tariff noise to upstream choke points; InP substrate restrictions directly constrain China’s AI/robotics and optical programs while leaving US/EU/Japan/Korea suppliers with pricing power.
- Key data: Multiple tweets cite InP as a live topic in US–China trade talks; Chinese suppliers already capacity-constrained on related optical products.
- Catalyst: Further export-control tightening or allied coordination (Japan/Korea tool restrictions). Timeline: ongoing into 2026–2027.
- Engagement: [228L 12RT 1QT] + [208L 8RT 2QT] = high-signal cluster.
- Cross-references: Ties directly to optical-fiber shortage flagged by @jukan05 (prices +10×, orders to 2028).
$SIVE — Board reset positions it as the next $LITE
- Who: @aleabitoreddit
- Thesis: Company is deliberately US-ifying governance (ex-$GFS and ex-$CITI executives plus UC Berkeley/$LITE alumni) to become a domestic photonics champion, capitalizing on the same InP/optical-fiber tightness.
- Key data: Core board now US photonics veterans; explicit positioning versus $LITE.
- Catalyst: Any incremental US content or CHIPS-related funding tailwind.
- Engagement: [876L 51RT 7QT] = 999 total score (highest in batch).
- Cross-references: Shares optical/photonics TAM with $AXTI InP substrates.
Google–TSMC direct relationship (COT model)
- Who: @jukan05
- Thesis: Google is requesting direct major-customer status at TSMC, mirroring Apple’s COT approach and bypassing Broadcom/MediaTek. Both Broadcom and MediaTek still treat this as a “distant” threat.
- Key data: Report from Tech Taiwan (15 May 2026).
- Catalyst: Any public confirmation or 2027–2028 ramp of Google-designed silicon.
- Engagement: [574L 55RT 17QT] = 735 total score.
$INTC — Rubin Ultra packaging upside
- Who: @jukan05 (citing UBS)
- Thesis: NVIDIA considering 4-chip Rubin Ultra SKU that would use Intel EMIB-T; creates a concrete advanced-packaging revenue stream for Intel.
- Key data: Two-SKU split (2-chip vs 4-chip); 4-chip version tied to EMIB-T.
- Catalyst: NVIDIA final SKU decision and Intel 18A/EMIB-T yield milestones.
3. SUPPLY CHAIN & SECTOR MAP
- InP substrates ($AXTI) → specialty optical fiber & modules (Chinese suppliers capacity-booked to 2028) → photonics platforms ($SIVE targeting $LITE role).
- TSMC direct channel (Google) compresses Broadcom/MediaTek.
- NVIDIA Rubin Ultra 4-chip variant pulls in Intel EMIB-T as a new packaging node.
4. RISK & CATALYST WATCH
- Ongoing US–China trade talks explicitly referencing InP/red-phosphorus controls (no fixed date).
- Google COT transition viewed as “distant” by incumbents but already in direct discussion with TSMC (15 May 2026 report).
- Specialty optical-fiber order books already full through 2028.
5. SIGNAL TABLE
| Ticker | Handle | Direction | Signal Type | Engagement | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTI | aleabitoreddit | bullish | catalyst | 999 | InP export controls tightening US leverage vs China |
| SIVE | aleabitoreddit | bullish | early_trend | 999 | US board reset to replicate LITE in photonics |
| INTC | jukan05 | bullish | catalyst | 195 | Rubin Ultra 4-chip SKU to use Intel EMIB-T |
| GOOGL | jukan05 | bullish | inflection | 735 | Direct TSMC customer status bypassing Broadcom/MTK |
### Semiconductors / Micron
- @dampedspring: "Us olds think of Micron as a moatless commodity chip maker. With a pretty darn rich Price to forward sales multiple. But what do we know. Scarcity to glut. Everytime chips were scarce because of unprecedented demand it led to a glut." (accompanied by two charts)
### Geopolitics / Tech & NVDA
- @BickerinBrattle: "Soon the US will announce it has discarded MAD for the 72 hour doctrine. Will be a biggie. Means Taiwan is handed over to China no matter what NVDA says. Means the real tech boom starts and won't be from Trump daft tariff policy. War makes us all."
### Value Investing / Mispriced Assets
- @dirtcheapstocks: "My passion is finding mispriced assets in public markets. Check these two out:" (accompanied by one chart)
### Crypto Markets
- @AntonLaVay: "真是服了这帮老王八蛋了，持有那么多币不去特么来做多天天在那空自己。"
### AI Consumer Adoption
- @ivanalog_com: "是的，豆包收费引来骂声一片。"
- @ivanalog_com: "目前看来只有算命是群众需要的AI"
- @ivanalog_com: "Codex app 出来了？"
### Cybersecurity & AI Coding Risks
- @fabknowledge: On npm supply chain attack: "Think we are watching the birth of a new market and this is what cybersecurity is gonna look like if vibe coding is the defense perimeter"
### Gaming & China Re-launch
- @GenAIRoblox: "Roblox China (Luobu) official re-launch set to be announced at RDC 2026, September 10-12 in San Jose, California. Roblox China Leadership will be present at the event. $RBLX"
### Microcap Earnings & Trading Reaction
- @fundmyfund: "Revenues totaled approximately $8.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026 as compared to $2.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 which was a 296% increase for the first quarter year over year."
- @fundmyfund: "In the first quarter, we generated $8.1 million in revenue, reflecting a 296% year-over-year growth compared to the first quarter of 2025 and a 65% quarter-over-quarter growth over the fourth quarter of 2025."
- @fundmyfund: "you did a good trade - buy it back now at 16.40 lol Maybe it goes back to 13s tomm who knows"
- @fundmyfund: "its falling in AH so you can get some there Just funny how the algos treat 1 report vs the other No explanation sometimes"
### Other
- @fundmyfund: "He knows how to play the Wall St game that is why we trust him Plus he went to Michigan ;)"
### Semiconductor Fab Capacity & Policy
- @lithos_graphein: Semi: 108 new fabs coming online by 2028—but 30 more needed to meet demand. Asks Congress to extend the Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit (AMIC) to keep momentum going.
### AI Infrastructure / GAI Stocks
- @TheValueist: Every one of these SMID-cap GAI names are issuing equity after a stock price rip. It has happened tens of times in the past 6 months. Something to be mindful of. $AAOI (Bloomberg) -- Applied Opto registers shares for potential sale via Raymond James, Needham. •Shares down 2.7% post-market on 246,098 shares traded •Market cap: $16.34 billion •Shares have climbed 39.1% in the past month •50-DMA $131.65
- @TheValueist: $POET +40%. Someone is getting a very sensitive part of their body squeezed. $POET Seems like someone knows something.
- @TheValueist: $FPS (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Forgent Power Solutions Inc. rise 18% premarket after the maker of electrical distribution equipment gave new guidance for full-year adjusted Ebitda that topped the average analyst estimate. Its backlog stood at $1.98 billion, a 157% year-over-year increase. •Shares had already risen 69% from the company’s February IPO through Wednesday •Results are due in part to “robust demand across our data center and grid end markets,” CEO Gary Niederpruem said in a statement YEAR OUTLOOK •Sees adjusted Ebitda $310 million to $320 million, saw $300 million to $310 million, estimate $307.6 million (Bloomberg Consensus) •Sees revenue $1.35 billion to $1.39 billion, saw $1.28 billion to $1.33 billion, estimate $1.3 billion THIRD-QUARTER RESULTS •Adjusted Ebitda $84.7 million, estimate $79.3 million •Revenue $378.7 million, estimate $327.6 million
### Decoupling / US-PRC AI Competition
- @TMTLongShort: One more person who needs to be decoupling-pilled 😉 (quoting post on joining Anthropic as Geopolitical Analyst on US-PRC AI competition paper)
### Trend Following / Specific Buys
- @wey_how12640: Oh mine. My story is that I bought $DOCN today too when I saw the dip to 8ema, as usual not carrying another hard stop (context, because of my timeframe, 3% size and just wanted to position myself in this leader), then I just went to watch my Netflix series before my bedtime.
### Deep Value / OTC
- @twaddle_inc: Goat (replying to thread: Went A to Z on the OTC. Here are my best finds. All US. Sub $100M market cap. And profitable.)
- @twaddle_inc: Lol $BONL (replying to same OTC thread)
Signal Book
| Ticker | Direction | Source | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| DOCN | Long | @wey_how12640 | Bought dip to 8-EMA with 3% position size |
| FPS | Long | @thevalueist | Raised FY adj. EBITDA guidance to $310-320M (vs $307.6M est) and revenue to $1.3… |
| POET | Long | @thevalueist | +40% move implies informed buying or short squeeze |
| AAOI | Short | @thevalueist | Equity registration for potential sale via Raymond James/Needham after 39% month… |
| DOCN | Long | @wey_how12640 | Bought dip to 8-EMA as trend-following long in a market leader |
| FPS | Long | @thevalueist | Raised FY adj. EBITDA guide to $310-320M (vs $307.6M est) + backlog +157% YoY on… |
| POET | Long | @thevalueist | +40% move with short-squeeze commentary and “someone knows something” momentum s… |
| AAOI | Short | @thevalueist | Equity issuance filing after 39% 1-month rally; shares -2.7% post-market on Raym… |
| RBLX | Long | @genairoblox | Roblox China (Luobu) official re-launch announcement expected at RDC 2026 (Sep 1… |
| NVDA | Short | @bickerinbrattle | US shift to “72-hour doctrine” implies Taiwan handover to China, overriding NVDA… |
| MU | Short | @dampedspring | Micron viewed as moatless commodity chipmaker trading at rich forward P/S; histo… |
| NVDA | Short | @bickerinbrattle | Taiwan handover to China (72-hour doctrine) creates supply-chain risk for NVDA r… |
| MU | Short | @dampedspring | Micron viewed as moatless commodity chipmaker trading at rich forward P/S; histo… |
| GOOGL | Long | @jukan05 | Direct TSMC customer status bypassing Broadcom/MTK |
| INTC | Long | @jukan05 | Rubin Ultra 4-chip SKU to use Intel EMIB-T |
Top Movers
No mover data.