Post-Close
Post-Close Briefing — 2026-05-13
May 13, 2026Post-Close Briefing — 2026-05-13
Market Regime
QQQ $713.29 — +14.5% vs SMA50 ($623.03) · Risk On ✅
Portfolio
| Strategy | Value | Return | DD | Positions | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Pool | $1,947,942 | +1847.9% | -2.0% | 20 | 0% |
| V5.3 | $1,191,235 | +1091.2% | -0.0% | 19 | 0% |
Today's Trades
No trades today.
Breakout Signals
No breakout signals today.
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Open Positions
| Ticker | Entry | Current | Gain% | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 000660.KS | $611.02 | $1372.26 | +124.6% | 4-Pool |
| 0981.HK | $8.21 | $9.85 | +20.0% | 4-Pool |
| 1347.HK | $12.06 | $17.22 | +42.8% | 4-Pool |
| 2513.HK | $102.10 | $115.55 | +13.2% | 4-Pool |
| APLD | $32.19 | $44.59 | +38.5% | 4-Pool |
| APP | $433.51 | $478.42 | +10.4% | 4-Pool |
| AVGO | $402.17 | $428.43 | +6.5% | 4-Pool |
| CIEN | $67.36 | $581.47 | +763.2% | 4-Pool |
| CIFR | $15.42 | $20.28 | +31.5% | 4-Pool |
| GFS | $47.80 | $74.99 | +56.9% | 4-Pool |
| LITE | $62.86 | $1053.09 | +1575.3% | 4-Pool |
| LRCX | $246.49 | $296.05 | +20.1% | 4-Pool |
| MDB | $264.69 | $294.65 | +11.3% | 4-Pool |
| MP | $57.36 | $67.41 | +17.5% | 4-Pool |
| MU | $465.66 | $795.33 | +70.8% | 4-Pool |
| NOK | $11.30 | $13.92 | +23.2% | 4-Pool |
| PWR | $317.65 | $781.38 | +146.0% | 4-Pool |
| TER | $107.65 | $366.64 | +240.6% | 4-Pool |
| TSM | $365.90 | $404.54 | +10.6% | 4-Pool |
| WULF | $18.05 | $23.37 | +29.5% | 4-Pool |
| 000660.KS | $611.02 | $1372.26 | +124.6% | V5.3 |
| 005930.KS | $138.98 | $208.39 | +49.9% | V5.3 |
| 0981.HK | $8.21 | $9.85 | +20.0% | V5.3 |
| 9888.HK | $15.68 | $18.11 | +15.5% | V5.3 |
| ASML | $1421.05 | $1565.81 | +10.2% | V5.3 |
| CCJ | $115.90 | $120.14 | +3.7% | V5.3 |
| CIEN | $67.36 | $581.47 | +763.2% | V5.3 |
| CIFR | $15.42 | $20.28 | +31.5% | V5.3 |
| CRDO | $119.59 | $210.22 | +75.8% | V5.3 |
| ETN | $400.44 | $419.00 | +4.6% | V5.3 |
| FCX | $49.15 | $64.37 | +31.0% | V5.3 |
| GFS | $47.80 | $74.99 | +56.9% | V5.3 |
| GOOGL | $317.24 | $388.64 | +22.5% | V5.3 |
| LRCX | $246.49 | $296.05 | +20.1% | V5.3 |
| MDB | $264.69 | $294.65 | +11.3% | V5.3 |
| PWR | $317.65 | $781.38 | +146.0% | V5.3 |
| QCOM | $156.00 | $237.53 | +52.3% | V5.3 |
| TSM | $365.90 | $404.54 | +10.6% | V5.3 |
| UMC | $12.98 | $15.59 | +20.1% | V5.3 |
X Alpha — Analyst Chatter
Convergence Alerts — X + Breakout Scanner
| Ticker | Direction | Source | Breakout | Score | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Long | @aleabitoreddit | VCP | 50 | CPO ramps via FOCI/Shunsin/Foxconn |
| AAOI | Long | @aleabitoreddit | Base Recovery | 45 | Supercycle frontrun at ~$30 (2025); laser volumes 2027 key |
1. MACRO & THEMATIC OVERVIEW
AI-driven semis supply chain tightness dominates: capacity squeezes in foundries ($TSEM prepayments) boost upstream substrates ($SOI), optical demand ramps ($AAOI, interconnected picks), NVIDIA ecosystem inflows ($NBIS 4GW/$6.3B capital, Tower Semi customer). Pricing power emerges (Ajinomoto ABF films +30% Q3 2026, DDR4 +20%). Index passives add tailwinds ($SIVE MSCI inclusion). Contrasts with NVIDIA Rubin cooling instability (revert to Griffin TIM). No geo risks flagged; focus on US/EU "Made in America" optics and Intel's Apple wins (M7 18A-P 2027).
2. HIGH-CONVICTION IDEAS
$SIVE — MSCI Global Small Cap Index inclusion triggers passive inflows
- Who: @aleabitoreddit (optical/semicon supply chain specialist)
- Thesis: Listing drives inflows as market cap grows, compounded by index weighting and short-to-long conversion; structurally positive with mgmt execution.
- Key data: Rebalancing May 29th; est. $25-32M inflows.
- Valuation: N/A.
- Catalyst: Index rebalance May 29th.
- Engagement: 1929 — very high.
- Contrarian?: With crowd (shorts flipping).
- Cross-references: None opposing.
$NBIS — Stellar earnings confirm NVIDIA-backed growth outperformance
- Who: @aleabitoreddit (optical/semicon supply chain specialist)
- Thesis: Earnings beat expectations with reaffirmed guidance and secured capital from NVIDIA.
- Key data: Trading $200+ premarket; $7-9B ARR 2026; 40% adj. EBITDA margins; 4GW contracted; $6.3B capital secured.
- Valuation: N/A.
- Catalyst: Post-earnings momentum.
- Engagement: 1839 — very high.
- Contrarian?: Outperforms expectations (vs. consensus).
- Cross-references: @jukan05 flags Tower Semi likely NVIDIA customer (related foundry ecosystem).
$AAOI — High-conviction optical long on revenue ramp + US supply chains
- Who: @aleabitoreddit (optical/semicon supply chain specialist)
- Thesis: Massive price ramp reflects under-owned thesis; sustained into 2027 via revenue growth and "Made in America" optics.
- Key data: Up ~6-7x to $200+.
- Valuation: N/A.
- Catalyst: Revenue ramp into 2027.
- Engagement: 1201 — high.
- Contrarian?: Yes — "nobody else was long last year."
- Cross-references: Part of interconnected optical picks with $TSEM/$SOI.
$TSEM — Post-earnings ATH on capacity prepayments amid foundry squeeze
- Who: @aleabitoreddit (optical/semicon supply chain specialist)
- Thesis: Extra prepayments secure capacity; downstream foundry squeeze drives upstream substrate demand/revenue.
- Key data: Trading $250+ post-earnings; $290M prepayment.
- Valuation: N/A.
- Catalyst: Thesis playing out (ATHs daily); 2 months post-thesis.
- Engagement: 715 / 520 — high/medium.
- Contrarian?: No — picks "keep making ATHs."
- Cross-references: Explicitly links to $SOI revenue boost; @jukan05 notes Tower Semi (competing foundry?) likely NVIDIA.
$SOI — Upstream beneficiary of $TSEM foundry capacity squeeze
- Who: @aleabitoreddit (optical/semicon supply chain specialist)
- Thesis: Downstream squeeze translates to immense raw substrate demand/revenue.
- Key data: Tied to $TSEM $290M prepayment.
- Valuation: N/A.
- Catalyst: Optical interconnections.
- Engagement: 520 (via $TSEM post).
- Contrarian?: N/A.
- Cross-references: Grouped in $TSEM/$AAOI optical chain.
$HPS.A — Steady grind higher on thesis execution
- Who: @aleabitoreddit (optical/semicon supply chain specialist)
- Thesis: Consistent daily gains validate thesis.
- Key data: 2-3% daily up since thesis; 20 CAD from triple-digit returns.
- Valuation: N/A.
- Catalyst: Ongoing price action (2 months post-thesis).
- Engagement: 485 — medium.
- Contrarian?: N/A.
- Cross-references: None.
3. SUPPLY CHAIN & SECTOR MAP
- Optical/Foundry Chain (@aleabitoreddit): $TSEM (foundry, $290M prepayments) → upstream squeeze → $SOI (raw substrates revenue); extends to $AAOI (optical revenue ramp, US chains). Interconnected "optical picks."
- NVIDIA Ecosystem: $NBIS (4GW contracted, $6.3B capital from $NVDA) → @jukan05 Tower Semi (new customer likely NVIDIA); cooling redesign risk (Rubin unstable liquid-metal TIM2 → revert Griffin).
- Substrate/Pkg Pricing: Ajinomoto ABF films +30% Q3 2026 impacts Taiwanese pkg makers (upstream pressure on semis like TSMC/$TSEM).
- Memory: DDR4 +20% (China); SK Hynix GDR surge.
- Power/Wafers: Vicor components ~$20k/wafer in Cerebras (rivals TSMC wafer value).
- Apple/Intel: M7 (Intel 18A-P prod end-2027); smartphone (14A end-2028).
4. RISK & CATALYST WATCH
- May 29th: $SIVE MSCI Global Small Cap rebalance (passive inflows).
- Q3 2026: Ajinomoto ABF film prices +30% (pkg cost inflation).
- End-2027: Apple M7 Intel 18A-P production.
- End-2028: Apple smartphone Intel 14A production.
- NVIDIA Rubin: Cooling instability (TIM2 revert to Griffin) — design risk.
- Recent earnings: $NBIS/$TSEM (beats/ATHs).
5. SIGNAL TABLE
| Ticker | Handle | Direction | Signal Type | Engagement | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SIVE | @aleabitoreddit | bullish | catalyst | 1929 | MSCI Small Cap inclusion May 29th; $25-32M inflows |
| $NBIS | @aleabitoreddit | bullish | confirmation | 1839 | $200+ pre; $7-9B ARR 2026, 40% EBITDA, $6.3B NVDA capital |
| $AAOI | @aleabitoreddit | bullish | early_trend | 1201 | 6-7x to $200+; 2027 optical revenue ramp + US chains |
| $TSEM | @aleabitoreddit | bullish | confirmation | 715 | $250+ post-earnings; $290M prepayment squeeze |
| $SOI | @aleabitoreddit | bullish | early_trend | 520 | Upstream revenue from $TSEM foundry squeeze |
| $HPS.A | @aleabitoreddit | bullish | confirmation | 485 | 2-3% daily gains; nearing triple-digit returns |
No substantive posts from the specified analysts in the last 24 hours.
No substantive investment-related posts from the specified analysts (@dylan522p, @fabknowledge, @francovezz, @fundmyfund, @fundstrat, @genairoblox, @iamai_eth, @investinjapan, @ivanalog_com, @japandeepvalue1) in the last 24 hours (since May 12, 2026).
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Searches for posts from the specified analysts (@kairospraxis, @lithos_graphein, @mike10947310, @owlwealthy, @raisingthebar47, @rjccapital, @rocksover, @semianalysis_, @springofarete, @stockguru) in the last 24 hours yielded no results matching the criteria (substantive investment/market commentary, excluding retweets without comment, memes, personal updates).
No substantive posts from the specified analysts (@teddyokuyama, @teslafan, @thevalueist, @tmtlongshort, @twaddle_inc, @wey_how12640, @xiaomucrypto) in the last 24 hours matching the criteria (skipping trivial content).
Signal Book
| Ticker | Direction | Source | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| HPS.A | Long | @aleabitoreddit | 2-3% daily gains; nearing triple-digit returns |
| SOI | Long | @aleabitoreddit | Upstream revenue from $TSEM foundry squeeze |
| TSEM | Long | @aleabitoreddit | $250+ post-earnings; $290M prepayment squeeze |
| AAOI | Long | @aleabitoreddit | 6-7x to $200+; 2027 optical revenue ramp + US chains |
| NBIS | Long | @aleabitoreddit | $200+ pre; $7-9B ARR 2026, 40% EBITDA, $6.3B NVDA capital |
| SIVE | Long | @aleabitoreddit | MSCI Small Cap inclusion May 29th; $25-32M inflows |
| HPS.A | Long | @aleabitoreddit | 2-3% daily gains nearing triple digits |
| SOI | Long | @aleabitoreddit | Upstream raw substrate revenue from $TSEM foundry squeeze |
| TSEM | Long | @aleabitoreddit | $250+ ATH post-earnings, $290M prepayment secures capacity |
| AAOI | Long | @aleabitoreddit | 6-7x to $200+ on 2027 optical revenue ramp, US chains |
| NBIS | Long | @aleabitoreddit | $7-9B ARR 2026, 40% EBITDA, $6.3B $NVDA capital at $200+ |
| SIVE | Long | @aleabitoreddit | MSCI Small Cap inclusion May 29th triggers $25-32M passive inflows |
| KEYS | Long | @kairospraxis | Expecting high-margin cash flow from KEYS, with reduced dilution concerns and gr… |
| MRVL | Long | @aleabitoreddit | Celestial fits $SIVE advanced CW lasers |
| SOI | Long | @aleabitoreddit | Full supercycle bottom for 10x 2028 |
Top Movers
No mover data.