Post-Close
Post-Close Briefing — 2026-05-25
May 25, 2026Post-Close Briefing — 2026-05-25
Market Regime
QQQ $714.51 — +11.7% vs SMA50 ($639.70) · Risk On ✅
Portfolio
| Strategy | Value | Return | DD | Positions | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Pool | $1,947,942 | +1847.9% | -2.0% | 20 | 0% |
| V5.3 | $1,182,333 | +1082.3% | -2.3% | 18 | 0% |
Today's Trades
No trades today.
Breakout Signals
No breakout signals today.
_Section section_options_radar unavailable.
Open Positions
| Ticker | Entry | Current | Gain% | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 000660.KS | $611.02 | $1416.06 | +131.8% | 4-Pool |
| 0981.HK | $8.21 | $9.54 | +16.2% | 4-Pool |
| 1347.HK | $12.06 | $16.45 | +36.4% | 4-Pool |
| 2513.HK | $102.10 | $129.82 | +27.2% | 4-Pool |
| APLD | $32.19 | $48.02 | +49.2% | 4-Pool |
| APP | $433.51 | $485.89 | +12.1% | 4-Pool |
| AVGO | $402.17 | $414.57 | +3.1% | 4-Pool |
| CIEN | $67.36 | $587.23 | +771.8% | 4-Pool |
| CIFR | $15.42 | $21.52 | +39.6% | 4-Pool |
| GFS | $47.80 | $81.35 | +70.2% | 4-Pool |
| LITE | $62.86 | $964.50 | +1434.4% | 4-Pool |
| LRCX | $246.49 | $302.24 | +22.6% | 4-Pool |
| MDB | $264.69 | $317.50 | +20.0% | 4-Pool |
| MP | $57.36 | $61.74 | +7.6% | 4-Pool |
| MU | $465.66 | $762.10 | +63.7% | 4-Pool |
| NOK | $11.30 | $14.18 | +25.5% | 4-Pool |
| PWR | $317.65 | $716.91 | +125.7% | 4-Pool |
| TER | $107.65 | $353.44 | +228.3% | 4-Pool |
| TSM | $365.90 | $407.15 | +11.3% | 4-Pool |
| WULF | $18.05 | $22.92 | +27.0% | 4-Pool |
| 000660.KS | $611.02 | $1416.06 | +131.8% | V5.3 |
| 005930.KS | $138.98 | $218.61 | +57.3% | V5.3 |
| 0981.HK | $8.21 | $9.54 | +16.2% | V5.3 |
| 9888.HK | $15.68 | $16.26 | +3.7% | V5.3 |
| ASML | $1421.05 | $1592.00 | +12.0% | V5.3 |
| CIEN | $67.36 | $587.23 | +771.8% | V5.3 |
| CIFR | $15.42 | $21.52 | +39.6% | V5.3 |
| CRDO | $119.59 | $193.39 | +61.7% | V5.3 |
| ETN | $400.44 | $381.51 | -4.7% | V5.3 |
| FCX | $49.15 | $62.31 | +26.8% | V5.3 |
| GFS | $47.80 | $81.35 | +70.2% | V5.3 |
| GOOGL | $317.24 | $387.66 | +22.2% | V5.3 |
| LRCX | $246.49 | $302.24 | +22.6% | V5.3 |
| MDB | $264.69 | $317.50 | +20.0% | V5.3 |
| PWR | $317.65 | $716.91 | +125.7% | V5.3 |
| QCOM | $156.00 | $213.41 | +36.8% | V5.3 |
| SHLS | $9.28 | $9.55 | +2.9% | V5.3 |
| TSM | $365.90 | $407.15 | +11.3% | V5.3 |
X Alpha — Analyst Chatter
Convergence Alerts — X + Breakout Scanner
| Ticker | Direction | Source | Breakout | Score | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | Long | @thevalueist | Base Recovery | 95 | Crowd pick (3 mentions) in power semi/800VDC AI data-center … |
| LPTH | Long | @fundmyfund | Base Recovery | 40 | Lockheed Martin NGSRI website launch highlights new drone/de… |
| ## 1. MACRO & THEMATIC OVERVIEW |
Two independent analysts converge on AI-driven photonics and power infrastructure. @aleabitoreddit focuses on laser/CPO chokepoints where upstream suppliers can capture outsized value as downstream AI optics players (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, Celestial) scale. @jukan05 highlights parallel demand shocks in power delivery (800V HVDC lead frames) and passives (MLCCs) for Taiwanese suppliers, plus China’s push into 900-layer V-NAND and non-EUV advanced-node paths via Huawei. The shared signal is that AI data-center buildout is forcing vertical specialization in lasers, power semis, and substrates, with clear geographic bifurcation (Taiwan/China supply chains vs. Western incumbents).
## 2. HIGH-CONVICTION IDEAS
$SIVE — Laser upstream to $4-15B+ CPO/AI optics names
- Who: @aleabitoreddit (photonics supply-chain specialist)
- Thesis: Sivers lasers sit at the chokepoint for Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and Celestial; as these names reach $4-15B+ valuations the laser supplier should re-rate higher, analogous to how LITE scaled from ~$2.6B market cap in 2024 to $80B.
- Key data: Current MC ~$2.6B; downstream targets valued $4-15B+; LITE precedent 30x+ multiple expansion; H1 2027 MC target $1.8-2.2B (conservative) or much higher on vertical integration.
- Valuation: $2.6B MC vs. downstream comps at $4-15B+ implies 2-6x upside before any integration premium.
- Catalyst: Volume ramps at CPO customers; potential follow-on moves into assembly/fabs once laser lock-in is proven (2027-2028 timeline noted).
- Engagement: [1869L 38RT 9QT] and [1019L 45RT 7QT] — highest-engagement posts in batch.
- Contrarian?: Against broad semis multiple compression; thesis rests on narrow laser scarcity rather than general AI capex.
- Cross-references: @jukan05 separately flags CPO as a high-quality structural theme but offers no direct SIVE view.
$AXTI / $IQE / $RPI — Photonic substrate and epi plays
- Who: @aleabitoreddit
- Thesis: Retail paper-handed these names post-institution bear notes; subsequent 3-15x moves validated the original laser/photonics thesis.
- Key data: Multiple 3x-15x returns cited after thesis posts; $IQE still viewed as having >3x remaining runway.
- Valuation: Not restated; prior entries implied low starting market caps relative to realized multiples.
- Catalyst: Continued CPO and InP substrate demand into 2026-2027.
- Engagement: [1869L 38RT 9QT] for AXTI cluster.
- Contrarian?: Explicitly notes retail exited while institutions accumulated.
- Cross-references: None in batch.
## 3. SUPPLY CHAIN & SECTOR MAP
- $SIVE lasers → Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, Celestial (CPO/AI optics); also referenced alongside $POET (TFLN) and $JBL (pluggables).
- Taiwan power semis / lead-frame suppliers → 800V HVDC architectures for AI data centers (direct demand link).
- Ample Electronic (MLCC raw materials) → AI server passives demand.
- Huawei 900-layer V-NAND and advanced-node announcements sit in parallel, non-EUV path, potentially competing for the same AI memory and logic sockets.
## 4. RISK & CATALYST WATCH
- Industry adoption of CPO still described as “extremely low” with volume ramps expected H2 2028 at earliest; earlier CW-related names preferred.
- MicroLED viewed as too early for meaningful CPO contribution.
- Geopolitical: Huawei’s non-EUV roadmap vs. Western EUV advantage flagged as structural divergence.
## 5. SIGNAL TABLE
| Ticker | Handle | Direction | Signal Type | Engagement | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIVE | aleabitoreddit | bullish | early_trend | 2054 | $2.6B MC laser supplier to $4-15B+ CPO names; LITE precedent |
| AXTI | aleabitoreddit | bullish | confirmation | 2054 | 3-15x realized after thesis; retail exited early |
| IQE | aleabitoreddit | bullish | catalyst | 352 | Still >3x runway in photonic substrates |
| RPI | aleabitoreddit | bullish | confirmation | 210 | ~3x return post-thesis; institutions accumulated |
| POET | aleabitoreddit | bullish | early_trend | 210 | TFLN link to same CPO ecosystem as SIVE |
No substantive investment posts found from the requested analysts in the last 24 hours matching the criteria (substantive theses, tickers, data, catalysts; skipping replies, quotes without analysis, politics, or trivia).
The search returned only one detailed original post on topic:
MLCC & AI Infrastructure (Structural Shortage)
- @AntonLaVay: "为什么 MLCC 又重要了？" Full thesis: AI data centers shifting power delivery to 48V/54V then ±400VDC/800VDC (Google/Meta/Microsoft OCP Diablo 400, NVIDIA 800VDC); AI chips create massive transient current (hundreds to thousands of amps at ~1V core) causing voltage droop; MLCC needed for PDN impedance, noise suppression, land-side/die-side placement, low ESL, high capacity, high reliability, high temp/voltage; not consumption cycle but structural (per-server usage rising, certification long, capacity allocation to high-spec by Murata/Taiyo Yuden/Samsung Electro-Mechanics/TDK); silicon capacitors complement not replace at highest frequencies; "大概率会" continue tight on high-capacity/small-size/low-ESL/low-height/48V/high-reliability specs; MLCC now part of AI infrastructure profit pool beyond GPU/HBM/optics. No price targets or specific tickers named. (Original Chinese post, 24 May 2026 21:51 GMT)
### Japan Value
- @JapanDeepValue1: "JAPAN’S FINANCIAL REGULATOR IS URGING LISTED COMPANIES TO CHANNEL MORE CASH RESERVES INTO LONG-TERM BUSINESS INVESTMENT RATHER THAN BUYBACKS AND HIGHER DIVIDENDS - SOURCES" — "I think speculation around this has been a huge part of it, it will be harder to 'greemail' these rock solid balance sheet companies so the activist trade is unwinding (to a degree)"
- @JapanDeepValue1: Reiterating prior post on 6998: "一方で、6998は依然としてPBR1倍割れで推移しており、チャートも他のHDD関連銘柄と比べて見劣りする状況です。"
### Personal Investing Reflections (cross-domain for @ivanalog_com, whose primary focus is tech/dividend blend)
- @ivanalog_com: "我和你一样，甚至更保守的多。我觉得每个人乐天知命就好。跟别人全仓，三倍比收益，我们显然是比不过的。别人的乐观和下注能力就决定了没法比。" / "我有一天反思，一个是可能更接近物理真实的经历，另一个可能是2008年的A股给我的记忆太深刻了。" / "每个人都有自己的福气和运气，不用太过自责。" (reflecting on conservative stance vs. aggressive full-position plays, citing 2008 A-shares trauma)
### Semiconductor Substrates & Supply Chain (AT&S / ABF)
- @KairosPraxis: "Delivering the product on time matters more than the exact cost" ~ Interesting insight from the CEO of AT&S on what their customers (chip manufactuers) actually care about. Context was whether they could pass on price increases (presumably in ABF raw material) to customers. Guess the real bottleneck is completing the shipment on time.
- @KairosPraxis: "Oh yes. Very very favorable pricing deals + customer paying for capex."
### AI Infrastructure & NVIDIA
- @lithos_graphein: Amazing security team. He's the trillion dollar man. (on Jensen Huang spotted at Taipei night market)
### Semiconductor Process Technology (Resist)
- @lithos_graphein: For Broadband and i-line DNQ resist (not chemically amplified) you can tune the resist profile shape (taper/footing) with develop time and dose. The soft bake and PEB also affect it but then it's a full blown process DOE. FEM mandatory to get best focus for sure, assumed that was done. On a track the develop puddle can be limited over time so it's customary to do a second puddle to refresh it if you need longer develop time. Like 2x 60s puddle.
### AI Agents & SaaS Demand
- @OwlWealthy: This feels like a 70% probability event in my mind - within the next 2 years demand for SaaS will be much higher due to the growth in the number of agents that will be using it and the volume of usage per agent Bullish for the right SaaS names $NOW $PLTR $MSFT $CRWD I also own a little $CRM
### AI Model Limitations
- @KairosPraxis: This is the weirdest part to me. The models being barely aware of their own capabilities. I just had a frustrating conversation with Claude where it kept on hallucinating stuff about a document instead of telling me I forgot to attach it.
### AI Infrastructure
- @TMTLongShort: Supply of compute drives research org at labs which drives model capabilities which drives inference demand. Demand for intelligence is unlimited. The compute imbalance will only worsen until scaling laws break.
### Power Semiconductors / 800 VDC
- @TheValueist: $NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE My Analyst Agent did some work for you @aleabitoreddit. I’ll update the analysis again as more responses come in. The power of GAI. POWER SEMI / 800 VDC CROWD-SOURCED PICK SCAN — UPDATED 05/24/26 12:40 PM ET. Context: the tweet asked for highest-conviction “10x only” stock longs tied to the power semiconductor / 800 VDC AI data-center architecture theme, with NVTS and WOLF cited as examples. UPDATED PICKS BY OCCURRENCE: NVTS: 18, WOLF: 12, VICR: 11, POWI: 8, INFINEON (IFX / IFNNY): 6, AOSL: 5, FCEL: 5, INNOSCIENCE / 02577: 5, IPWR: 5, OUST: 5, HIVE: 4, ATOM: 3, CWR / CWR.L: 3, SEDG: 3, TE: 3, BE: 2, BRUN: 2, DGXX: 2, ENPH: 2, EOSE: 2, FLNC: 2, HGRAF: 2, IREN: 2, KALRAY: 2, LUMN: 2, NBIS: 2, NOK: 2, RELL: 2, VIVO: 2, VLN: 2. Single-mention picks: ACLS, AEHR, AIP, AISP, AIXA, ALAB, ALKAL, AMBA, AMC, AMPG, AMSC, APH, ARBE, ASYS, CGEH, CPSH, CVV, DUOT, ENSI, EPOW, GFS, HYLN, IMSR, INDI, INFQ, INV, IONQ, IQE, KEEL, KQ / 168360, KULR, LAES, LPTH, MRVL, MSTR, NVEC, ON, PAYT, POW, PPSI, QS, RENESAS, RGTI, RKLB, SCE, SHLS, STM, TRT, TSLA, VIAV, VPG, VSH. LARGEST CHANGES VS PRIOR CAPTURE: NVTS: 10 → 18 (+8), VICR: 6 → 11 (+5), WOLF: 8 → 12 (+4), Infineon: 3 → 6 (+3), POWI: 6 → 8 (+2), AOSL: 3 → 5 (+2), OUST: 3 → 5 (+2), New two-mention names: IREN, RELL. Bottom line: new comments strengthened the same core cluster rather than changing the thread’s direction. NVTS remains the clear crowd favorite, WOLF remains #2, and VICR moved up materially. Infineon, AOSL, OUST, and Innoscience gained incremental support. RELL and IREN newly emerged as two-mention names. Source: Original X post and captured public X replies/quote posts for https://t.co/oIcwWc8uOu, refreshed 05/24/26 12:40 PM ET.
Signal Book
| Ticker | Direction | Source | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| VSH | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| VPG | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| VIAV | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| TSLA | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| STM | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| RKLB | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| RGTI | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| QS | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| ON | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| NVEC | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| MSTR | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| MRVL | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| IQE | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| IONQ | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
| INDI | Long | @thevalueist | Single-mention 10x long in power semi/800VDC AI data-center architecture |
Top Movers
No mover data.